Ask whether electric heat or gas heat is cheaper and you will get a confident "gas, obviously" from most people. They are half right. The problem is that "electric heat" is not one thing — it is two systems with wildly different running costs, and lumping them together is where nearly every comparison goes wrong.
The short answer: at 2026 national-average energy prices, electric resistance heat (baseboards, wall heaters, or a central electric furnace) costs about $55 per million BTU of delivered heat — more than three times what a high-efficiency gas furnace costs (about $16.50). But an electric heat pump — also "electric" — delivers heat for roughly $17 to $24 per million BTU, which brackets natural gas and beats it outright where electricity is cheap relative to gas. The word "electric" hides a 3x spread. Which half you are talking about decides the whole answer.
"Electric heat" is really two different machines
Before any numbers, you have to split the category:
- Electric resistance heat — an electric furnace, baseboard heaters, wall units, or space heaters. Electricity runs through a coil and turns into heat. It is 100% efficient at the point of use: every watt you buy becomes a watt of heat. That sounds great until you see the price of a watt.
- Electric heat pump — an air-source heat pump (including ductless mini-splits and cold-climate models) does not make heat, it moves it from outdoor air into your home. Because it is moving existing heat rather than generating it, it can deliver two to four units of heat for every unit of electricity it consumes. That multiplier is called the coefficient of performance (COP), and it is the entire reason a heat pump can compete with gas.
Gas heat, by contrast, is straightforward: a furnace burns natural gas (or propane, where a gas line isn't available) at an efficiency set by its AFUE rating — 80% for a standard furnace, up to about 98% for a high-efficiency condensing model.
How to compare heating fairly: cost per delivered million BTU
Comparing "cents per kWh" against "dollars per therm" is apples to oranges. The honest unit is the delivered cost per million BTU (MMBTU) of actual heat in your home — that already accounts for efficiency, so every fuel is on the same footing. You need three things: the energy content of each fuel, its 2026 price, and the equipment's efficiency.
| Energy source | Energy content | 2026 avg. residential price |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 3,412 BTU/kWh | 18.83¢/kWh |
| Natural gas | 100,000 BTU/therm | $1.57/therm |
| Propane | 91,500 BTU/gallon | $2.674/gallon |
Prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), national residential averages, spring 2026. Natural gas converted from $16.25 per thousand cubic feet.
Run those through the efficiency of each system and you get the table that actually answers the question.
Electric heat vs gas heat at 2026 national prices
| Heating system | Efficiency | Delivered cost ($/MMBTU) |
|---|---|---|
| High-efficiency gas furnace | 95% AFUE | $16.53 |
| Heat pump (excellent, COP 3.5) | COP 3.5 | $15.77 |
| Heat pump (good, COP 3.0) | COP 3.0 | $18.40 |
| Standard gas furnace | 80% AFUE | $19.63 |
| Heat pump (cold day, COP 2.5) | COP 2.5 | $22.08 |
| Propane furnace | 95% AFUE | $30.76 |
| Electric resistance (furnace/baseboard) | 100% | $55.19 |
Delivered cost = (1,000,000 ÷ BTU per unit) × unit price ÷ efficiency. COP for a heat pump is used as the efficiency multiplier.
Two things jump out. First, electric resistance heat is in a category of its own — at $55/MMBTU it costs 3.3x a high-efficiency gas furnace and nearly double a heat pump on a bad day. If your "electric heat" is baseboards or an electric furnace, gas almost certainly wins, and it isn't close. Second, the heat pump lands right on top of natural gas: a good unit ($18.40) sits just above high-efficiency gas ($16.53), and an excellent one ($15.77) edges below it. That overlap is why the honest answer is "it depends" — and it depends on things this national snapshot hides.
The catch every simple comparison ignores: rated COP vs seasonal COP
The heat-pump numbers above use a rated (instantaneous) COP — the efficiency on a mild day. But heat pumps get less efficient as it gets colder, exactly when you need them most. At 17°F a good cold-climate unit still holds a COP around 2.8-3.2; at 5°F it can fall to 2.0-2.5. And below its balance point — the outdoor temperature where the heat pump can no longer keep up — most ducted systems fall back on built-in electric resistance heat strips running at COP 1.0, the same $55/MMBTU worst case.
The number that captures a whole winter of this is HSPF2 (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor). Convert it to a seasonal COP by dividing by 3.412, and the realistic annual picture looks like this:
| Heat pump rating | Seasonal COP | Seasonal cost ($/MMBTU) |
|---|---|---|
| HSPF2 8 (baseline) | 2.34 | $23.59 |
| HSPF2 9 (typical) | 2.64 | $20.91 |
| HSPF2 10 (efficient) | 2.93 | $18.83 |
| HSPF2 11 (premium/cold-climate) | 3.22 | $17.14 |
Seasonal COP = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412. Delivered cost at 18.83¢/kWh national average.
This reframes everything. On a seasonal basis at national prices, a typical heat pump (HSPF2 8-9) actually runs about $21-24/MMBTU — modestly more than both high-efficiency gas ($16.53) and even a standard 80% gas furnace ($19.63). Only a premium HSPF2 10-11 unit gets down to gas territory. So the popular claim that "a heat pump is always cheaper because COP is 3 or 4" quietly swaps the best-case number for the season-long average. In a cold climate at average energy prices, a high-efficiency gas furnace often still edges a heat pump on pure running cost. The heat pump's real advantage shows up somewhere else: your local price ratio.
It's not electric vs gas — it's your price ratio
Because a heat pump multiplies cheap electricity and a furnace divides by efficiency, the winner is decided by how expensive your electricity is relative to your gas. The break-even is clean: a heat pump beats a 95%-efficient gas furnace when
(electricity ¢/kWh) ÷ (gas $/therm) is below about 3.6 × the heat pump's COP.
At the national average that ratio is 18.83 ÷ 1.57 = 12.0. The break-even at COP 3.0 is 3.6 × 3 = 10.8, so gas edges it; you need a real COP above about 3.3 for the heat pump to win at national prices. Now watch what happens when electricity prices swing by state:
| State | Electricity (¢/kWh) | Heat pump $/MMBTU (seasonal COP 2.7) | vs. 95% gas ($16.53) |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | 12.35 | $13.41 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Idaho | 13.28 | $14.42 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Utah | 13.29 | $14.43 | Heat pump cheaper |
| U.S. average | 18.83 | $20.44 | Gas cheaper |
| Connecticut | 32.24 | $35.00 | Gas far cheaper |
| California | 35.25 | $38.27 | Gas far cheaper |
| Hawaii | 46.62 | $50.62 | Gas far cheaper |
Electricity prices: EIA state residential averages, April 2026. Gas reference line uses the $1.57/therm national average; your local gas price shifts it.
One honest caveat on this table: the cheap-electricity states above (North Dakota, Idaho) are often also cheap-gas states, so a homeowner there may find local gas cheaper than the $16.53 national line — the ratio still favors the heat pump, but the gap narrows. The place heat pumps win most decisively is where electricity is cheap relative to gas (the hydro-powered Pacific Northwest) or where the home has no natural gas line at all — because then the real competitor is propane at $30+/MMBTU or resistance heat at $55, and a heat pump at ~$20 wins in a landslide.
"Gas furnace vs electric furnace": the specific matchup
If you are shopping literally between a gas furnace and an electric furnace — not a heat pump — the running-cost verdict is blunt. An electric furnace is resistance heat, the $55/MMBTU worst case. Against a gas furnace at $16-20/MMBTU, the gas unit costs roughly a third as much to run everywhere natural gas is available. Over a heating season that can be a four-figure difference.
Electric furnaces still get installed for a reason: they are cheap to buy (often $1,500-$3,000 installed vs. $4,000-$7,000 for gas), need no flue, gas line, or combustion safety, and last a long time. In a mild climate, a vacation home, or a low-heat-load addition, the low install cost can outweigh years of higher running cost. But in any home with a real winter, an electric furnace is the most expensive common way to stay warm. If you're weighing the upfront side of this decision, our breakdown of heat pump vs gas furnace installed cost covers the equipment math this running-cost comparison sets aside.
What this running-cost comparison leaves out
"Cheaper to run" is only one column of a real decision. Before you commit, factor in:
- Installation and equipment cost. A heat pump's higher purchase price can erase years of fuel savings; an electric furnace's low install price can offset its high running cost in low-use homes. This article deliberately isolates running cost so the fuel math is clean.
- Gas fixed charges. Natural gas service carries a fixed monthly meter/distribution fee — commonly $10-$15 — that a per-BTU comparison ignores. For a low-usage home, that fixed charge can meaningfully narrow gas's advantage.
- Federal tax credits. Note a timing change: the 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit for heat pumps ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025 (repealed early by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act). Systems installed in 2025 can still be claimed on a 2025 return, but do not budget a federal 25C credit for a 2026 installation. Some state and utility rebates still apply — check locally.
- Air conditioning. A heat pump is also your AC. If you'd otherwise buy a furnace and a central air conditioner, the heat pump replaces both, which changes the total-cost picture in its favor.
- Backup heat and capacity. In cold climates a heat pump may need a gas or resistance backup for the coldest nights, adding cost and complexity that a furnace doesn't.
The bottom line
Stop asking "electric or gas" and ask which of the three systems you actually mean:
- Electric resistance (electric furnace/baseboards): the most expensive common heat there is — about $55/MMBTU, 3x gas. Only defensible where install cost dominates and heating use is low.
- Natural gas furnace: the reliable running-cost winner at national prices, roughly $16-20/MMBTU. If you have a gas line and a cold winter, it's hard to beat on operating cost alone.
- Electric heat pump: competitive-to-cheaper than gas, and the clear winner where electricity is cheap relative to gas or where the alternative is propane, oil, or resistance heat. Just judge it on seasonal COP (HSPF2), not the mild-day rating on the box.
The single number that settles it for your address is your local electricity-to-gas price ratio against your equipment's real efficiency. Plug your own state's energy prices and system type into our free heating cost calculator — it compares electric resistance, heat pumps, natural gas, propane, and six other systems side by side — or see where all fuels land in our guide to the cheapest way to heat your home.